Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Low (<5%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes |
Low (<2%) |
Wind
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
Mod (50%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Low (20%) |
Hail
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Low (<5%) |
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events |
High (90%) |
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NEW CASTLE
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL
FREDERICK HARFORD KENT
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
---------------------------------------------------------------
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM 615 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAKEHURST NEW
JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL BOWS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING
GENERALLY ESE TOWARD NRN MD/NRN DE AND SOUTH JERSEY AHEAD OF DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES SE OF CURRENT STORMS...AND CONTINUED LOW LVL THEA-E
ADVECTION OVER WATCH AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BACK-BUILD WNW ALONG
THE FRONT IN CNTRL PA. THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF 40+
KT MID LVL WNW JET STREAK...FURTHER SUPPORTING RISK FOR DMGG WIND
AND PSBLY HAIL.
