Category Archives: Interest Story

March 5/7 Snow Outlook

SNOW POSSIBILITIES LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY

Outlook for March 5/6, 2013 | Mark Gonzalez

Original post on MWC Facebook

TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING: precipitation starts to move in from the south/southwest by rush hour… will probably start as rain for everyone in the Metro and south and east.. further west mostly snow.

OVERNIGHT TUES/EARLY WED morning: as precip. intensity begins to increase we should see some dynamic cooling and a changeover to SNOW from west to east overnight into early Wed morning…although ocean/bay influences may cause RAIN to hang on longer on the Eastern Shore and near the bay through the late AM hours. However, If the storm tracks further south, this will allow more cold air to seep in further south and east causing the changeover to occur more quickly south and east of I-95.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Heavy snow and winds will prevail… significant accumulations are a good bet and maybe power outages as well. The variability of the RAIN-SNOW line and where it sets up makes exact accumulations still a bit difficult to forecast at this point-we have to remember that for the Metro area and south and east to get heavy snow accumulations in March and break through that higher sun angle we need heavy intensity of precip and a strong flow of arctic air from the north. At any rate its a good bet west of the Chesapeake Bay (but east of the Blue Ridge) someone receives 12 inches plus…precip changes to all snow for everyone all the way to the coast as the storm exits late Wednesday night. Some snow bands may hang on into early Thursday morning possibly giving the Eastern Shore a additional shot at significant accumulations.

In summary- more snow the further south and west you are-these are not exact amounts rather potential accumulations as we see at this point-expect this to change:

the Eastern Shore and NE Maryland-4 inches plus
Baltimore Metro- 6 inches plus
Southern Maryland and Annapolis-8 inches plus
DC Metro Area-12 inches plus
Western Maryland- 8 inches plus
(Mark G)

Isaac Makes His Move

Current Satellite Imagry of Issac (Only on Desktop, mobile users must scroll down) –>

Tropical Storm Isaac Churns North of Cuba, Should Travel West of Florida

Author: Josh Owens | August 25, 2012 9:00 pm est

Well I have been holding off from saying what track Isaac would take for alot longer then other have, and I think for fair reason. I didn’t have enough confidence in the models that had Isaac a storm that was going west of the Florida panhandle, which is why I said in my last post that I would hold off till at most the 26th for a final outlook on a track. Yep, Im early. Anyway, I was debating between these three solutions for Isaac track:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Latest NHC Track

  1. East side of Florida: Isaac would come off of Haiti growing quick and becoming a Hurricane and pulling north, going  up the side of the east coast and eventually weakening a little and making a landfall in the Carolina’s as a Tropical Storm, bringing with it tropical depression like conditions  to our region.
  2. Hit the nail on the head: The nail is the Florida panhandle, near Homestead. It would travel up the land and be a Tropical Depression within 12 hours.
  3. Gulf Coast: This is the one everyone else is on. Travels into the gulf, strengthens to a Hurricane and hits the gulf coast somewhere. Lots of opinions on where that is.

Well things came together today with Isaac enough to show that he should be a “Solution 3″ storm. We (Mark and I) are in agreement that it will make a impact along the gulf coast, on Florida soil. The strength should be around a strong Category 2 to weaker Cat 3 storm. That may be adjusted though as the storm progresses.

IMPACTS FOR MARYLAND

We wouldn’t be feeling it until next weekend most likely, but we should be getting some good rain left overs from this storm. The thought is that a front will collect the remains of the system and bring it over to us for a few days. That, however, is a bit of a distance away from us time-wise and something we will monitor as the days come towards us.

Hey, its NOT a Irene 2.0!

All eyes on Isaacs eye.

No seriously, I know that title name is sorta goofy, but its the truth. This system is one that we should monitor through the 26th at least.

Current Satellite Imagry of Issac (Only on Desktop, mobile users must scroll down) –> 

Tropical Storm Isaac forms in the Atlantic

Author: Josh Owens | August 22, 2012 1:50 pm est

:: NOTICE :: PLEASE READ THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO AVOID CONFUSION OR THE STARTING OF A HYPE TRAIN::

Anyone remember what happened about a year ago? Well yeah, an earthquake, but about a week later we had Hurricane Irene on our doorstep. Lets see what happened:

  • Late August
  • Developed by the Lesser Antilles
  • Letter “I” on the list of names for the 2011 season
  • Models showed it going towards Florida during its first stages as a Tropical Storm
  • Turned north off the Dominican Republic
  • Impacted east coast a few days later

Well…low and behold our newest member to the 2012 season of storms, Isaac. Not to strong quite yet as he churns in the Atlantic. Many models had this storm on its scopes around the 17th of August…a few of them planting the storm on our doorstep later next week.

Its obviously way to early to say that this storm will be another Mid-Atlantic rain/wind maker…but it does share some very, VERY eerie similarities to last years iStorm. Lets take a look:

  • Late August
  • Developed by the Lesser Antilles
  • Letter “I” on the list of names for the 2012 season
  • Models are showing it going towards Florida during its first stages as a Tropical Storm

“Now Josh, you copy/pasted part of that”..well…yeah…I did…because the start of the lists are looking really similar at this stage of the game. Heres the thing though, it is still to early to say that this will be Irene 2.0 or anything like that, its WAY to early at this point. We didn’t know Irene was going to become a strong storm so quickly and make a north turn at this point last year. Isaac is still a young one. Irene, as mentioned before, got uber strong as it left the Dominican Republic (Isaac still has yet to reach the Leeward Islands [South East of the Dominican and Puerto Rico]) and made a sharp North turn towards us.

And yeah, the “I” named storm trend is really weird…so I listed it…but don’t be superstitious about it. Also to those who think that I named storms are non-players, here is list of a few notable storms to hit the east coast:

  • Ivan (2004)
  • Isabelle (2003)
  • Irene (2011)

So, all this said, what do we do now? Well…wait…we should get a better grasp of what Isaac should by Sunday the 25th. Then I’ll update you on what hes looking like. If you live anywhere between the Yucatan in Mexico to the East Coast, keep a kind eye on this system in the days ahead. Its still very open that anywhere could be hit, it just needs to be right place right time for any one place to be impacted, things right now are favoring the look of a US impact storm.

The one wildcard we have is the genesis of the soon-to-be Joyce in the central Atlantic. The storm is destined to be a fish storm and stay out in the Atlantic. What we do need to watch is the path Isaac and Joyce take as they share the same waters. We will monitor this as the days wear on.

External Links:

Beryl Analysis

Tropical Storm Beryl | No longer a “Subtropical Storm” as of 2:00 Advisory | Josh Owens, May 27, 2012

As of the 2:00 pm advisory from NHC, Beryl is an official tropical storm with winds near 60mph. Impact on the Florida and Georgia coastline is expected this afternoon (May 27, 2012) around 6:00. Strengthening is still possible as Beryl resides over the warm waters of the Gulfstream in the Atlantic.

Post and Analysis from May 26, 2012, edited on the 27th to accommodate recent upgrade in Beryl’s strength ———————-

With the formation of Beryl in the Atlanic, it makes the second preseason tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic season. Crazy right? It was a subtropical cyclone meaning that it holds characteristics of a tropical storm but also is cooler then a typical system making it look like a storm that would produce a nor’easter…kinda confusing I know. I myself am learning about this kind of system like you are.
What kind of impact will Beryl have on us? Well for the Memorial day weekend, nothing. For Tuesday and Wednesday following, nothing. As for Thursday, we may need to pay attention as some models project it coming up the coast and hitting us as a possible tropical system or even as a nor’easter kind of storm. That’s a far out call though, as we are a little while out from it. The National Hurricane Center does have us in the infamous “cone of uncertainty” for possible impact on Thursday. We will monitor Beryl as she barrels towards the Georgia coastline a whopping 6 mph. (For those that missed the joke, that’s actually supremely slow for a system, I was trying to be “punny”).