Tornadoes

Wind

Hail

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
District of Columbia
central and eastern Maryland
north-central North Carolina
central and eastern Virginia
eastern West Virginia Panhandle
coastal waters

* effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include…
several tornadoes possible
several damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
a few large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 70 statute
miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east of Danville
Virginia to 40 miles north northwest of Baltimore Maryland. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Precautionary/preparedness actions…

Remember… a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Other watch information… continue… ww 129… ww 130…

Discussion… tstms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity east of the high terrain this afternoon as region is
influenced by a midlevel jet streak lifting poleward through the TN
valley. While midlevel lapse rates are poor… daytime heating
coupled with boundary layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will
yield MLCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg. This instability will align
with a strongly sheared kinematic environment which will promote
organized storm modes… including supercell and lewp structures
capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Aviation… tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400.
Mean storm motion vector 24040.
… Mead

April 19, 2013 » 3:50 pm EDT Update

Josh Owens, Severe Weather/Short Term Forecaster

3:50p: So a quick disclaimer about this. The watch is more precautionary, this isnt a big outbreak that’s expected. Its not a June 1st type outbreak, not a derecho. Its a powerful cold front that’s entering FAVORABLE but not OPTIMAL conditions for severe storms/tornado development. We still need to pay attention though because if a spin up occurs, the consequences for those who aren’t paying attention could be bad.

Here are your Severe Weather Risk Factors for April 19 | Valid 3:50pm 4/19/13

• Wind: 4/10 (Raised from a 3)
• Hail: 0.5/10
• Tornado: 3/10 (Raised from a 2)

• Watch Issuance: 4/10 
• MWC Nowcasting: Doubtful | Possible | Likely

———- OLDER UPDATES ———

1:00pm update: The SPC has upgraded the entire eastern half of the state to a slight risk of severe weather for today. The risk for tornadoes has raised slightly along with wind risk. BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN a tornado outbreak is happening, WHAT IT DOES MEAN is that the risk for minor rotation within storms is present. The main threat is winds, straight line winds are possible.

No, this is not a Derecho.

More updates to come.

10:00am post: Good morning everybody. Today the risk for severe weather has grown to the point that the SPC has issued a slight risk of severe weather for Central and Southern Maryland along with parts of the Delmarva. The main risk is winds, tornadoes are number 2 on the risk list but I am not overly worried about it. Looks like straight line winds could be our bigger issue as the cold front comes through.

We may nowcast today, more details later today as SPC updates maps and as we get closer.

April 18, 2013 » 1:00 pm EDT

Josh Owens, Severe Weather/Short Term Forecaster

Hello and happy Thursday everybody! Crazy set of days for severe weather trackers as today is the second day with a moderate risk or severe weather posted in the US by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). There have been many tornado watches including a few PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) watches, not a pretty situation. 7 tornadoes were reports with many hail and wind reports to accompany it. (Link to reports)

I do need to take a quick break from that and say that we have seen and are following the stories from Boston, MA and West, TX. Our hearts and prayers go out to those caught up in these two tragedies. Simply heartbreaking.

Now to come back real quick and mention the weather here. Kind of cloudy and muggy today as highs have reached into the 70s for some. Right now we have a awkward and goofy warm front over our region that is really trying to annoy us weather geeks with the temps…it may or may not be working…more on that later, maybe . Anyway the front has those in western Maryland sitting at a temp HIGHER (70s) then those in the Baltimore metros (60s), meanwhile southern Maryland is in the 70s. This does require that I bring up the POSSIBLE risk for stronger storms tomorrow. This cold front is a powerhouse, it has alot of energy with it that is helping trigger those severe storms to our west.

The question in most minds reading this right now is: will it be bad here? Answer: Nope.

We have a little bit of energy in the atmosphere, but not enough to fire off a big severe weather outbreak…or even a small one for that matter. Those just our south in North Carolina haven’t had to deal with a moody and annoying warm front like we have, their temps have remained pretty constant and even a little warmer then us. So because of this, SPC has placed a slight risk right to our south in the tidewater Virginia area and over eastern portions of North and South Carolina. We could see stronger storms, but we lack the proper instability to support bigger severe storms. We will update you as needed on this tonight along with another tomorrow.

Here are your Severe Weather Risk Factors for April 19 | Valid 1:45pm 4/18/13

• Wind: 2/10
• Hail: 0/10
• Tornado: .5/10

• Watch Issuance: 1/10 
• MWC Nowcasting: Doubtful | Possible | Likely

April 17, 2013 » 1:30 pm EDT

Josh Owens, Short Term Forecaster.

Today…yeah its going to be nice, it already is, BUT we do welcome a unfriendly foe to the equation: humidity. Ill give you that it isn’t horrible or oppressive…yet but I know that its not something people like to hear. Pollen is also a factor today, it was chilling to see the shade of yellow on the hood of my car today. Allergy sufferers: beware! 

Ok back to weather, a major severe weather outbreak is possible today in Oklahoma. Tornadoes, hail, wind…you name it and its a probable threat. This is part of a cold front that will sweep through our area by Friday. The severe weather risk doesn’t look to be huge for our region, but we’ll keep watching it. 

Few showers possible as a front hangs near the area, nothing major. Highs in the 70s for most, pushing 80 for some. 

I know this is brief, Ill add details to this as needed, have a great rest of your day all!

April 15, 2013 » 9:00 am EDT

Mark González, Long Term Forecaster

Good Monday Morning. We have some light rain and drizzle working its way in from the southwest this morning. Precip shield hopefully to break up and move out by sometime in the afternoon hours, but temps will probably hold in the 60s.